Over 48.1 million COVID cases and 777,000 total deaths in the US. Dr. Frank’s “models” predicted 1,500 deaths tops. How is someone who is off by more than a factor of 500 and climbing be even the least bit credible?
3/15/20 “Our model is predicting about 70,000 cases, and fewer than 1,500 deaths…We won’t even know anyone who was affected”
Someone who knew what they were doing made an initial estimate of over 500,000 deaths as a best-case scenario two days before Doug made his 1,500 death claim.
He goes on to make claims that it’s not going to be anywhere near as bad as an annual influenza season, which accounts for about 30,000-60,000 deaths in the US each year.“ Fewer people will die from COVID-19 than have already died from the common flu. (Something like a factor of ten.)”
3/21/20 “According my [sic] projections (which are working splendidly), next week the US is going to be at its worst.”
3/22/20 “If after all the model predicts the pandemic here in the US, and yet our ‘experts’ in Washington didn’t, then there is gonna be some major egg on a lot of faces. I would love us to hand feed them this crow. Let’s all do it together, and demand accountability.
By posting these NOW, later we will have credibility, and a leg to stand on for criticizing their irresponsible hype…Of course, LATER they will make one that fits…but they will have made that one AFTER the experiment. That is not science my friends, that is CYA.”
How well did this work out for you? How come you aren’t taking accountability for your false claims? What about your hype that this was nothing? Where is your credibility? What you have done isn’t science, it was propaganda. You tried to force the data to reflect the message you wanted to send. That’s anything but science.
“I think they WANT it to be bad. Go figure. If it were bad, I would say so.”
You would say so? You never did, so no, you kept perpetuating your lies.
“So here is what happened: a) Covid arrived. B) It exploited the easy vectors…the people who are vulnerable. C) Now it struggles to spread any more…it has used up its easy vectors. d) So it fades out…
…In order to have a second wave: a) You need a new crop of easy vectors. b) You need a new source of infection. c) Unless the virus mutates substantially, it’s [sic] lost its previous vectors. d) So a larger second wave is very unlikely…because the epidemic is essentially over in the US.”
How many waves until it’s really done? Care to make any more false claims? Your entire paragraph isn’t based in science.
Then he went on to double down when it was clear he was wrong and started making up excuses to cover his tracks.
“If there was zero testing, there would be no ‘spike’ in reported cases. In fact, there would be ZERO reported cases…All of the other numbers [other than deaths] are far too vulnerable to all sorts of issues to make valid appraisals of the situation.”
“At this stage of the epidemic, reporting ‘cases’ to us will be meaningless unless a state also reports the sensitivity and specificity of the tests they are using…Yet another reason (I’ve been saying this all along) why ‘cases’ are the wrong way to track the progress of the epidemic…”
The sensitivity and specificity of all of the tests when you made your claim was better than 98% and that data was easily found. You lied so many times to push your agenda.
Cases and deaths clearly follow the same curves, yet you never backed down from your false claims.
He makes another odd claim, especially when he said he had “controls” that prevented him from watching the news to not be biased. If that is the case, how did he come up with these lies, such as this one that is fact-checked.
“The thing that is annoying us is that deaths are being attributed to Covid that are not really due to Covid…The inflated tally is no surprise; our financially strapped hospitals get larger reimbursements if a death is attributed to Covid.”
Partly false claim: Hospitals get compensated 15% more when they admit, discharge, or lose a patient to COVID-19; New York City hospitals are inflating their case numbers to take advantage
Of course, there was plenty of really bad advice that could hurt people as well, such as “Wearing a mask actually *increases* your chance of picking up a virus.”
“Some of the newbies have been asking my why my initial forecasts were so low.” He blames it on “Simple. Garbage in, garbage out.” This led him to calculate 1,092 death in the US, and he placed his “original estimate of deaths in the US was between 500 and 1,500. My original assumptions were based upon my modeling of the situation in China, and the WHO discussion of those results.”
“’Trust the Epidemiologists.’ Every time I hear this, I just shake my head…” Should we trust a lying chemist instead? The only garbage was that which was coming out of his mouth and keyboard.
Oddly, he still seemed to relish in the media attention, even when they called him out on lies.
Listen to some of his nonsense here.
Even now, he keeps up the lies about the impact of COVID, as evidenced by this recent post he made. I suppose if one keeps saying is “essentially done,” they will be “eventually right.”
Given his propensity to lies and being incredibly wrong in things outside of his field, even though he claims expertise, why do people believe him about election fraud? His “algorithm” on that has been debunked several times as well.
There is so much more to be said and tons of evidence for his lies. Why believe him at all? When under oath, he buckles. See his testimony start at the 1:30 mark.
Who is Dr. Frank?
Dr. Douglas G. Frank has been called a mathematician, chemist, physicist, entrepreneur, scientist, election data analyst, He also describes himself on Facebook as a “Scientist, Inventor, Entrepreneur, Libertarian, Teacher, Musician, Daddy, Husband, Servant of Christ.” Mike Lindell describes him as an “Internationally Renown Physicist.”
Doug Frank received his BS at Westmont College in Montecito, California and started toward his PhD at the University of California, Santa Barbara. He transferred to the University of Cincinnati where he completed his doctorate in surface analytical chemistry four years later, in 1990. During the 90s, he published a number of research papers in the field.
He started Precision Analytical Instruments, Inc., which oddly seems to be most focused on technology around bowling balls after so much education in chemistry. He was also chair of the math and science department at The Schilling School for Gifted Children in Cincinnati, Ohio, until early 2021.
He claims to have been “modeling” epidemics and pandemics for many years and using it as part of his teaching curricula at Schilling. He started a Facebook group called “Dr. Frank Models” that went through other name iterations such as “Follow the Data with Dr. Frank” and finally “Follow the Data with Dr. Frank (PhD),”the final one likely due to realizing he might get in trouble for pushing bad medical advice to people thinking he was a physician.
His Facebook group grew to over 50,000 members who were attracted to the notion that the pandemic was minor and would be “essentially done.” He was banned a number of times from Facebook for spreading false information and eventually his entire group disappeared. He claimed that it was taken down by Facebook, but it is just as likely that since it had so much incriminating evidence that he was either lying or didn’t know what he was talking about that he and his team of moderators decided to pull it down and blame Facebook for it. He also was banned from YouTube for the same reason.
At that time, he moved most of his social media presence to other new platforms, such as MeWe, Telegram, and other dark holes of conspiracy theories.
It was about this same time that he began working on his “algorithm” proving election fraud and fomenting the Big Lie. He eventually caught the attention of Mike Lindell (The Pillow Guy), where they collaborated to make what could more appropriately be termed a mockumentary called “Scientific Proof.”
He’s been parading around the country giving the same presentation over and over about his election “key” to the “algorithm” and election fraud. He seems to be more interested in attention as opposed to science and facts. The FBI has noticed his incitement activities and it is pretty likely the Dominion has him on their radar as well.
How he can describe himself as a “patriot” and “Christian” is completely puzzling. It’s almost like he has become a mashup of The Wizard of Oz, The Pied Piper, and The Emperor’s New Clothes personified. The saddest thing is though that people eat his lies up like it’s the truth. That’s a sad statement to the quality of our educational system and the US and the lack of critical thinking by his followers.
September 15, 2022 update.
Most people are aware of the warrant for the collection of the phone of Mike Lindell, who is likely bankrolling Doug Frank’s nonsense. “Lindell acknowledged at the time that he had hired Frank for several projects but said he was not aware of all of Frank’s activities.” Here’s the documents related to that event. Note that Doug Frank is specifically listed as a co-conspirator on Attachment B, section 2 (the page after the silhouette of Lindell).
So here’s exactly what looks like a potential felony charge. It looks like he was a major player in an election security breach.
Per the New Yorker, “The plan that Frank devised with Tina Peters and Sherronna Bishop centered on a planned software update—called a ‘trusted build’—of the county’s Dominion Voting Systems machines. Because election equipment is not meant to be connected to the Internet, which could open it up to hackers, Dominion’s software upgrades are conducted in person, with only limited personnel in attendance. Frank said he told Peters that it was imperative to make a copy of the existing system before the machines were reprogrammed. ‘Otherwise, you’ll lose your evidence,’ Frank recalled telling her. ‘So that’s when I put her in contact with some people who could come in and do backups.’
The Washington Post states “On April 23 Peters convened a meeting with Knisley, Bantz, Brown and Stephanie Wenholz, another elections manager. Someone secretly recorded that meeting on a cell phone and turned that recording over to investigators, the affidavit said. Also present: Sheronna Bishop, formerly the campaign manager for U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Silt; Douglas Frank of Ohio and Maurice Emmer of Aspen. Emmer was identified in the affidavit as an associate of Bishop, Frank and MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell. None are employees of Mesa County. During that meeting, Frank claimed the voting equipment could be accessed remotely. Later in the discussion, Peters invited Frank to sit in on the “trusted build” scheduled for May 25-26. He declined but said he had a team who could do it. Bantz and Wenholz were then asked to leave the room…On May 23, records show key cards for Peters, Brown and Wood were used to enter the elections area. The affidavit said that, on that date, someone ‘unlawfully took a digital image of the entire Dominion hard drive for the specific purpose of analyzing the software and data’ and that Peters ‘later publicly admitted to this act…
…The images of the Dominion hard drive, including its copyrighted software, are now publicly available online. ‘National platform media outlets and computer experts suggest that nefarious hackers may study the software files to attempt to find vulnerabilities to harm future elections,’ the affidavit said.”
It looks like the guy who was making claims of election fraud has greatly increased the likelihood of future election fraud. Go figure. May he be charged with a felony and spend some time in prison. That’s a good place for a traitor to his country.